Hawks VS Swans 1.10 MCG

For me the most anticipated match of the round and will have lots of questions answered such as – How much strife are the Swans really in? Was last weeks belting of the Blues a sign of things to come for the Hawks? Can the Hawks make the finals? Will those stupid Kokoda camouflage jerseys work in the Hawks favour? Can Henry Playfair actually string a few games together and make my Dream Team investment worthwhile? Are Sydney really shit?

I’m rooting hard for a Hawks win. Might seem strange from a Cats supporter but seeing the Hawks rise up and back playing their best footy is good for the competition. I’ll never forget 2008 for the rest of my life and there’s nothing I’d love more than to get some revenge and beat them in the finals.

It would also be excellent to see the Swans lose their 4th straight to keep the likes of Beno silent after putting up with his nonsense for at the start of the season. Do I have to remind you about my amazing prediction, Beno?

My honest thoughts about this game? I think we’ll get a definite answer after the first quarter. The Swans are desperate for a win and like the lions last night I believe they are capable of turning the tables around and getting back on track. What they have going against them are some key injuries to Kennelly, Bradshaw and Seaby and the fact that it’s the Kokoda game (for both sides I believe) but the whole event seems heavily in the Hawks favour wearing those camouflage jerseys, which I actually like the look of, it’s much better than the poo and wee stripes.

On a side note, it’s annoyed me for the last couple of years how the Hawks injury list has seemed to be accepted as an excuse for them not winning. Well I’m pretty sure they have the smallest injury list in the league now. So if they don’t win, they are indeed shit.

My Tip – Hawks by 22+. Unfortunately the odds just aren’t juicy enough for me to have a punt @ 2.20 under 39 points.

Dreamteam – you’re a smart man if you have Hodge as your captain this week. An easy 100+ game coming up for him. O’Keefe – LIFT! I expect Mitchell to have a cracking game too after all the talks this week questioning if he is the true captain of the team. Goodes is due for a cracking game too.

It’s a shame Barry Hall isn’t playing after last years game where he gave away a 150m penalty. Going to be a cracker of a game. I can’t wait!

Port to beat the Bombers by under 39 points @ $2.60 – Yes it’s in Melbourne, the only reason I can see why the bombers would be favourites. They beat a pathetic hawthorn the week before and the dees still have a lot of trouble with their defense. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if the Power got up by over 39 but because the bombers are favs I’m tipping Port by under 39. P.S. I need new recruit C.Cornes to really kick ass this week in my Dream Team.

Hawks to beat the Eagles @ $2.35 – Yes, it’s at subie but the eagles have been pretty bad and there doesn’t seem to be any sign on or off field that they’re going to turn it around. Meanwhile this week all the heat has been on the hawks who I honestly believe will come out firing. Franklin playing fully fit is the worry and they’re still without their captain. Also the ruck is a worry too with big Nic Nat and Cox coming back to form (I sort of feel like I’m talking myself for a weagles win now but I’ll stick with it! ) However – they’re a proud club and can be nasty when they want to be. I predict a nasty hawks side to get one back and keep the media at bay. In all honesty though, if they lost again it wouldn’t bother me in the slightest

Freo to beat Lions by under 39 @ $3.25 – I can’t believe Lions are huge favourites here. Still without Merrett and now Maguire suspended their backline will struggle a bit. They’ll need a fully firing Browny and Fev to win this one but I just think the run of Freo will get them over the line. I hope Lions win but the dockers are just looking too good at the moment and at those odds they’re too good to refuse. Would be a great game to go to!

Swans to beat Cats by under 39 @ $4.25 – Delicious odds and again I’m doing my usual routine of betting against my beloved cats. I can’t see either team winning by over 40 and I give the Swans a chance on current form. I still go by my tip last week that from the head I think the cats at home will be too strong for the swans and the cats should take it out in a close one. Having said that, they are juicy odds and it will be devestating if we lost, especially against Sydney for certain reasons (ie putting up with Beno for the rest of the year over a H&A win against the cats) so a few dollars in my pocket will make up for it only very very very very slightly.

If I were going to put a multi on I’d slap it on port and freo double. Sorry Matty P. Lions need to do something to gain my respect back. Your return from the states may just help them!

You see – both his beloved swans and his DT Gangstarz are yet to beat any sizeable opponents. The Swans have only beaten teams in the bottom 8 of the ladder, the same goes for his DT. He and his swans have yet to come across any sizeable opponents – for instance Matty P or my good self in DT and the lions or the mighty cats.

In the AFL – this all changes starting tonight. Swans come up against the lions. Two weeks ago the lions were all the talk, after a loss to the lions and a few injury concerns (Browny and Merret for example) and a home ground advantage the Swans go in as favourites. I think their odds are a little too generous and people are forgetting the teams they’ve come up against. That’s not to say I don’t think Sydney are a terrible side, they just haven’t beaten anyone of significance yet.

If Beno can beat me and matty P in DT and the swans can beat the lions and cats then Beno can run his mouth all he wants. But for now – I’d be keeping a lid on it

I predict the swans could beat lions tonight in a close one – I can’t see vossy accepting another effort like last week against the dees. It’ll be a close match. I am putting a $10er on the swannies though. Either team I think will win by no more than 30.

I don’t think tonights result will really alter my thoughts for the cats/swans game the week after. If ablett plays I’m pretty confident. It’s at the cattery and that further boosts my confidence. It’ll be a pretty tight contest with theh cats getting away by about 10-35 points.

As for DT Beno plays me in round 18 (the last round of the home and away before finals start) and Matty P in round 12. Beno will lose both these matches quite considerably. DT is a marathon, not a sprint.

Adelaide Crows

The Adelaide Crows are sitting around $8 for the NAB cup and around $9 for the AFL flag, this year sees the crows going into the NAB cup without any trial matches instead just focusing on training and just going through “special” drills, alot different compared to last year where the crows focused heavily on intra trial games.

Beno’s Opinion: Last year the crows had a troubled last half of the season with injuries and certain players making fools of themselves and getting arrested which affected team moral and just couldn’t get through the finals but this year they are fit and fighting but all i will say is it’s make or break this year if they can do it they will be a repeat of the crows in the late 90’s fail then they will be chokers as they have always been.