1. Collingwood 5W 0L
2. Hawthorn 4W 1L
3. Essendon 3W 1L 1D
4. Adelaide 3W 2L
5. Sydney 3W 2L
6. Carlton 3W 2L
7. Western Bulldogs 3W 2L
8. West Coast 3W 2L
9. Geelong 3W 2L
10. St Kilda 2W 2L 1D
11. Port Adelaide 2W 3L
12. Brisbane 2W 3L
13. North Melbourne 2W 3L
14. Melbourne 2W 3L
15. Gold Coast 2W 3L
16. Fremantle 1W 4L
17. Richmond 1W 4L

Now before you get your knickers in a knot I know NAB cup means nothing, just look at how Carlton performed when they won the NAB cup in 05 and 07 (claiming the wooden spoon and 15th spot those years). Having said that, I think it’s pretty safe to say that Collingwood aren’t going to win the spoon this year and there’s a fair chance that Richmond and Gold Coast will probably be looking at the bottom end of the ladder. In fact the last 7 teams in this NAB form guide I’ve created, apart from maybe Fremantle, will probably miss the 8 this year.

Worrying signs based on preseason for mine would be – Fremantle, Melbourne and Richmond. To a lesser extent St Kilda and Geelong.

Good signs based on preseason form would be – Essendon, Hawthorn and Adelaide.

Winning form is good form, preseason or not. I bet a lot of people will be putting Essendon a bit higher on their predicted ladder than where they had them 2-3 months ago. Even Ross Lyon is getting a worried about the Saints form heading into the regular season.

Will the form of the NAB cup alter your predicted ladder for 2011? Or will you dismiss it entirely? Personally I think there are some things we can read from it but you may have to dive deeper than a form ladder to find it.

Hawks VS Swans 1.10 MCG

For me the most anticipated match of the round and will have lots of questions answered such as – How much strife are the Swans really in? Was last weeks belting of the Blues a sign of things to come for the Hawks? Can the Hawks make the finals? Will those stupid Kokoda camouflage jerseys work in the Hawks favour? Can Henry Playfair actually string a few games together and make my Dream Team investment worthwhile? Are Sydney really shit?

I’m rooting hard for a Hawks win. Might seem strange from a Cats supporter but seeing the Hawks rise up and back playing their best footy is good for the competition. I’ll never forget 2008 for the rest of my life and there’s nothing I’d love more than to get some revenge and beat them in the finals.

It would also be excellent to see the Swans lose their 4th straight to keep the likes of Beno silent after putting up with his nonsense for at the start of the season. Do I have to remind you about my amazing prediction, Beno?

My honest thoughts about this game? I think we’ll get a definite answer after the first quarter. The Swans are desperate for a win and like the lions last night I believe they are capable of turning the tables around and getting back on track. What they have going against them are some key injuries to Kennelly, Bradshaw and Seaby and the fact that it’s the Kokoda game (for both sides I believe) but the whole event seems heavily in the Hawks favour wearing those camouflage jerseys, which I actually like the look of, it’s much better than the poo and wee stripes.

On a side note, it’s annoyed me for the last couple of years how the Hawks injury list has seemed to be accepted as an excuse for them not winning. Well I’m pretty sure they have the smallest injury list in the league now. So if they don’t win, they are indeed shit.

My Tip – Hawks by 22+. Unfortunately the odds just aren’t juicy enough for me to have a punt @ 2.20 under 39 points.

Dreamteam – you’re a smart man if you have Hodge as your captain this week. An easy 100+ game coming up for him. O’Keefe – LIFT! I expect Mitchell to have a cracking game too after all the talks this week questioning if he is the true captain of the team. Goodes is due for a cracking game too.

It’s a shame Barry Hall isn’t playing after last years game where he gave away a 150m penalty. Going to be a cracker of a game. I can’t wait!

Port to beat the Bombers by under 39 points @ $2.60 – Yes it’s in Melbourne, the only reason I can see why the bombers would be favourites. They beat a pathetic hawthorn the week before and the dees still have a lot of trouble with their defense. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if the Power got up by over 39 but because the bombers are favs I’m tipping Port by under 39. P.S. I need new recruit C.Cornes to really kick ass this week in my Dream Team.

Hawks to beat the Eagles @ $2.35 – Yes, it’s at subie but the eagles have been pretty bad and there doesn’t seem to be any sign on or off field that they’re going to turn it around. Meanwhile this week all the heat has been on the hawks who I honestly believe will come out firing. Franklin playing fully fit is the worry and they’re still without their captain. Also the ruck is a worry too with big Nic Nat and Cox coming back to form (I sort of feel like I’m talking myself for a weagles win now but I’ll stick with it! ) However – they’re a proud club and can be nasty when they want to be. I predict a nasty hawks side to get one back and keep the media at bay. In all honesty though, if they lost again it wouldn’t bother me in the slightest

Freo to beat Lions by under 39 @ $3.25 – I can’t believe Lions are huge favourites here. Still without Merrett and now Maguire suspended their backline will struggle a bit. They’ll need a fully firing Browny and Fev to win this one but I just think the run of Freo will get them over the line. I hope Lions win but the dockers are just looking too good at the moment and at those odds they’re too good to refuse. Would be a great game to go to!

Swans to beat Cats by under 39 @ $4.25 – Delicious odds and again I’m doing my usual routine of betting against my beloved cats. I can’t see either team winning by over 40 and I give the Swans a chance on current form. I still go by my tip last week that from the head I think the cats at home will be too strong for the swans and the cats should take it out in a close one. Having said that, they are juicy odds and it will be devestating if we lost, especially against Sydney for certain reasons (ie putting up with Beno for the rest of the year over a H&A win against the cats) so a few dollars in my pocket will make up for it only very very very very slightly.

If I were going to put a multi on I’d slap it on port and freo double. Sorry Matty P. Lions need to do something to gain my respect back. Your return from the states may just help them!

You see – both his beloved swans and his DT Gangstarz are yet to beat any sizeable opponents. The Swans have only beaten teams in the bottom 8 of the ladder, the same goes for his DT. He and his swans have yet to come across any sizeable opponents – for instance Matty P or my good self in DT and the lions or the mighty cats.

In the AFL – this all changes starting tonight. Swans come up against the lions. Two weeks ago the lions were all the talk, after a loss to the lions and a few injury concerns (Browny and Merret for example) and a home ground advantage the Swans go in as favourites. I think their odds are a little too generous and people are forgetting the teams they’ve come up against. That’s not to say I don’t think Sydney are a terrible side, they just haven’t beaten anyone of significance yet.

If Beno can beat me and matty P in DT and the swans can beat the lions and cats then Beno can run his mouth all he wants. But for now – I’d be keeping a lid on it

I predict the swans could beat lions tonight in a close one – I can’t see vossy accepting another effort like last week against the dees. It’ll be a close match. I am putting a $10er on the swannies though. Either team I think will win by no more than 30.

I don’t think tonights result will really alter my thoughts for the cats/swans game the week after. If ablett plays I’m pretty confident. It’s at the cattery and that further boosts my confidence. It’ll be a pretty tight contest with theh cats getting away by about 10-35 points.

As for DT Beno plays me in round 18 (the last round of the home and away before finals start) and Matty P in round 12. Beno will lose both these matches quite considerably. DT is a marathon, not a sprint.

I believe Matty P and myself had our first wins in the $100 AFL Betting Challenge. Beno is still yet to participate but have been given a good word he will be up and raring to go within a week. He’s got money and internets coming through so I’m hoping we see the bad the sad and the ugly side of Beno on footyhigh real soon

Round 3 is just hours away from starting. I’m tipping it’ll be a tipsters nightmare this week, a lot of 50/50 games. Shall be very interesting. Bring it on!

So many questions but the biggest question of all lies on today’s blockbuster at the MCG – Geelong VS Hawthorn. I’m being my usual skeptical self and am putting on a 5er on the Hawks under 40 points currently paying $3. This bet means either Matty P or I will come out with a win (finally) in the $100 AFL Betting Challenge. Don’t worry though, I’m barracking hard for my mighty Catters and nothing would please me more than topping off the Hawks. Yes, 2008 still hurts and will probably hurt to some degree for the rest of my life. It’s a safety bet and you’ll see me placing a lot more of  these when the cats play games against the big guns.

The boys are coming over this afternoon to get our footy and drink on, should be a ripper of an afternoon. Sort of has a September feel to today so hoping for a special game and some footy banter.

I’m just running through what other bets you can place and thought I’d share some thoughts.

Most Disposals

Sam Mitchell looks like great value at $5.50 but not against all conquering mighty captain Ling. He’ll keep Mitchell to around 15-25 disposals today, would be very surprised if he cracked over 30. Depending on where Hodge is he may collect him it all depends on who Ling goes to. Ablett is probably going to get the most disposals and has reasonably good odds of $2.75. He has ripper games against the Hawks. I like these odds so much I’m going to put $3 on Ablett for most disposals at $2.75. Add to the fact that it’s the son of God’s special weekend and he IS the son of God so he’s bound to have a cracker!!

First Goal

There’s some fairly good odds around. It’s pretty much a lottery for first goal but I reckon Byrnes or Mooney are a good pick for first goal at $13 and $8.50.

Most Goals

Most goals not surprisingly Franklin is no1 at $4.75. I really like Byrnes but maybe he’s getting too much attention as of late and he’ll be respected a little better than previously. Byrnes is paying $13 for most goals. Personally I’d rather put a punt on him for first than most goals. Roughy is $7.50 for those playing at home.

So that’s it. Beno has just arrived. Let the afternoon commence!!

Sarge’s 2010 AFL Ladder (prediction)

1. Dogs (This is their year, do or die time. They have the ‘missing piece’)
   
2. Saints (Are pissed, determined for revenge, fit and ready to rock. They won’t let a NAB final loss upset them… or will they?)
   
3. Geelong (Will have a slow start but come back firing ready for the finals, injuries permitting)
   
4. Brisbane (Will take a while to gel, but once they do – oh boy, I’m scared)
   
5. Pies (I think they’re a tad overhyped, they’re well spread out but who’s the danger man up forward?)
   
6. Hawks (If they finish any lower than 6th they’re the laughing stock of the AFL)
   
7. Adelaide (Will start a bit slow with their injured list but old mate Craigy will get them into the finals once again)
   
8. Sydney (They have nothing to lose, Rooseys last year as head coach, injury free, kids coming through. I like what I see)
   
9. Port (Another inconsistent year, will hopefully use NAB form to get them as high as 9th)
10. Kangaroos (Kangaroos are quite inconsistent, they are capable of knocking off the big teams)
11. Freo (I like what I saw from them in the NAB, but it’s freo. I’ll wait till 2011 till I give them a finals chance)
12. West Coast (Big Cox is going to go down this year, leaving Nic Nat with more than he can handle)
13. Carlton (Who’s kicking goals? Judd gone for 3 weeks, discipline issues within the team and a coach with big ears)
14. Richmond (Sorry tiges – you’re ‘transitioning’ and that doesn’t mean into the finals)
15. Essendon (Who’s kicking goals? Gumby? Haha)
16. Melbourne (You guys have way too many injuries and just love being down there don’t you?)

Brownlow - Gary Ablett (28 Votes)
There will be so much attention on Gazza this year, add to that his bald nut and his amazing footballing ability you can lock in Gazza for the brownlow right now.

Coleman - Barry Hall (79 goals)
I’m buying the doggies hype. They’re a fast team and they’re gonna target this guy like mad. If he plays as well as he did in the NAB he’ll get his 79 goals and take down the coleman. He doesn’t have to compete with another tall timber. He’s the doggies no1 target up forward.

Rising Star - Dustin Martin
In all truth, I don’t know much about the rookies. Jetta, Shuey look good but I’m just buying into the hype and people are saying this guy is an amazing kick, going to play 22 games etc etc. Maybe the tiges can win something other than the spoon this year.

AA Captain – Nick Riewoldt
He’s a freak. I applaud him for his work rate. Just needs to kick straight and he’s unbeatable. And probably be able to beat defenders with less than 50 games experience in Grand Finals

Premiers – Brisbane
A bit of a wild pick for me. Trying to be a bit unbiased I guess but I’m scared shitless of an up and running, in-form Browny and Fev in the forward line. The lions have a pretty solid defense and a midfield with the likes of Blacky and Rich running around they will be hard to beat. As long as their less experienced players kick it up a notch this year, they make top 4 it’ll be hard to beat a rampaging Fev and Browny come finals time.

Runner Up – Bulldogs
Won’t this be a sad story. I’m buying the hype and from what I saw in the NAB they look good to go. This is the year they must at least make the Grand Final. Which they’ll do, but Barry Hall will have a shocker of a day. The pressure and the women will get to him. He won’t be able to cope. He might not even make it out on Grand Final day.

Norm Smith - Simon Black
This guy always seems to go under the radar. I’ll admit I have no idea how his preseason has gone (not that it matters for Norm Smith) but he’ll love to win another premiership near the end of his career and give his all on the big stage.