Perhaps I’m being a little melodramatic, but the events that took place the evening  of March 26 at the Gabba were truly a disaster for the Brisbane Lions. We had a rough off-season – we had to sack two players for disciplinary reasons, our best and fairest winner and two other senior players walked out on the club, and the whole time our coach, our players and our whole club were getting bashed by all the goobers in the football media and most opinionated punters agreed with them.

But for Lions supporters there was always hope – Losing Fev was a blessing and Proud, Brennan and Sherman were inconsistent hacks who would never reach the potential the footy public seemed to think they had. A 2011 season in which Adcock, Maguire, Merrett, Drummond and Patfull didn’t miss extended periods would see our defence back to our 2009 best and in the three Rs (Rich, Redden and Rockliff) we have three of the most talented and underrated young midfielders in the business, and we still have Black and Power to guide them.

There was plenty of positive talk whispered between Lions fans under all the trash-talk from elsewhere, but it all came with one proviso: we NEED Browny. He was the one to kick the goals, straighten us up and steer the ship. When his nose got inverted into his head and his face was buried in the Gabba turf, you could hear 20,000 Lions supporters collectively yell ‘aw f—!’

To make matters worse we lost Staker as well. The one guy we could point to and say ‘See! Vossy’s not a complete nutbag! He can make a good trade!’ Feels bad man. After the rubbish we’ve been through this off-season, we really needed a win. To lose it in those circumstances was devastating. I haven’t seen a crowd that disappointed since the 2004 Grand Final.

It wasn’t all bad though. It was a gutsy effort for an inexperienced team to fight as hard as they did despite the injuries and kids like Bewick and Beams showed some goods. I also heard that when Browny headbutted the Earth, the whole planet shifted a fraction further away from the Sun, effectively solving that whole global warming thing. So thanks for that, Browny, and up yours Carbon Tax!

The pre-season is finally coming to an end, so we can stop talking about schoolgirls, player managers and Fev’s darkest days and we can turn our attention to the real important stuff. The usual banter has been flying around amongst the boys and of course we’re all talking up our sides and predicting big things (this is particularly difficult this year as a Lions supporter), so like last year we’re making a point of documenting just how we think things will pan out for the 2011 season. Come season’s end we can look back and see how right or (much more likely) how wrong we were.

The 2010 crystal ball was a bit hazy for me, and thinks didn’t go precisely as  I thought, so this year I’ve given it a good polish. I can confidently say that everything I predict here comes with the Matty P guarantee – you can put the farm on these calls.

The Final Ladder (including finals)

1. Pies

2. Cats

3. Dogs

4. Hawks

5. Saints

6. Freo

7. North

8. Carlton

9. Swans

10. Lions

11. Port

12. Bombers

13. Crows

14. Eagles

15. Dees

16. Tiges

17. Suns

Brownlow: Luke Hodge

Coleman: Barry Hall

Rising Star: Jared Polec

AA Captain: Luke Hodge

Norm Smith: Dale Thomas

Bradshaw Games/Goals: 6/14

Dale Thomas Top 10 for Brownlow: No (Sarge and I have a wager, just making it official)

It may be a bit of a cop out just picking the reigning premiers to take it out again this year, but I really can’t see who is going to get over the top of the Pies in 2011. Late last year Collingwood looked just about unbeatable – the performance in the prelim against the Cats was just awesome, and to come back in the GF replay and blow the Saints away like they did shows they’re made of the right stuff. With the exception of Presti they really haven’t lost much in the off-season and they’ve got a bunch of younger guys who are only going to go forward in their development.

The cats at 2 might surprise a lot of people, but I’m expecting good things from them. If Bomber was as jaded as he says he was at the end of 2010, it can’t have been good for the club – I think a new coach and a fresh outlook will revitalise Geelong and they’ll still be thereabouts this year.

I’m tipping the Saints to slide a bit this year. They’ve proven to be just short of the mark for the last couple of years now with a team built around the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard and Dal Santo. These guys are still great footballers, but they’re past the age where we can expect to see any improvement from them – I think 2011 is the year where we’ll start to see some of the younger sides catching up to the ageing Saints.

They’re probably no surprises at the other end of the ladder. The Suns inexperienced list will struggle at AFL level, and it’ll take them a while to find cohesion amongst the group. I think they’ll be waiting a while for their first win.

I think Captain Hodge is going to kick things up a notch this year. Obviously he’s already rated as one of the best in the business, but I think 2011 will be the year he stamps himself as one of the greats. Polec is a bit of a roughie for the Rising Star, but he’s a classy kid who’ll get games in the Lions struggling midfield. Besides, Brisbane has got to win something.

Once again, Sarge and Beno the challenge is issued to make your own predictions. If anyone disagrees with me feel free to comment and let me know why and I will tell you why you are wrong.

For the other boys 2011 predictions check out the following:

• Sarge’s Ultimate Prediction Post for 2011
• Beno’s 2011 Predictions Post

Outside of my team’s performance it was a cracker of a season. We saw the rise of Collingwood, the fall of Essendon, the continued middle-of-the-road blandness of the Kangaroos. Some young guns came through, and some old dogs went out. So many great moments, but I’ve boiled it down to a top five best moments, be warned there’s a bit a Brisbane slant:

5. Browny blowing Carlton away - To see the contrast between Carlton fans huffing and puffing about Fev before the game then crying about Browny tearing them a new one (again) in round 2 was beautiful. 21 touches, 12 marks and 7 goals. The man is a legend.

4. Melbourne Collingwood draw - I will always remember this game. One of the greats. Collingwood play an entertaining, free-running style of footy and they were so close to being beaten by a young Melbourne side at their own game. There’s no neutral supporter’s when Collingwood’s involved and this one was heart-breaking for 90%  of fans.

3. Goddard in the drawn grand final - Tough, gutsy and brutal, but also pure class in probably the most intense game I have ever seen. How he did not win Normie I have no idea. Not that I’m complaining – I made a pretty penny on Lenny.

2. Sydney getting their pants pulled down by Melbourne - I’m just happy I could be a part of this one. Could not have asked for a better game to sit by my good friend Beno. Watching Sydney suffer their biggest defeat under Paul Roos and Benson’s reaction was priceless.

1. Fev’s 4 second half goals to sink the Pies - Home and away games do not get better than this one. A packed house at the Gabba, our star recruit kicks a bunch of assy goals to steal victory from the bad guys, snapping a five game losing streak in the process. All I could think after this game was ‘this is why I love footy’.

The Dizzying Highs

On a personal level, 2010 has been a huge success for Matty P. Dream Team was a huge focus for us Footy High boys this year, although I’m not sure why. It was and always has been a foregone conclusion that I would be the premier. I paced myself in the lower half of the eight all season, just biding my time – building the ultimate team of Septemer (or August) specialists. The mighty Mashers pulled an Adelaide ’98 effort winning the flag from 5th, bundling Sarge’s zeros and Beno’s Wangstaz out of the finals in the process. How sweet it is.

But that’s not my only huge success. The final tally in the $100 betting challenge looks a little something like this:

Matty P – $195.41

Sarge – <$1

Beno – DNF

I am truly a legendary punter and I’m going to pull a Joe Namath and guarantee victory in this same contest next year.

The Crushing Lows

It wasn’t all roses though. If we look back in time my start of season predictions were not so super.

Premiers: WRONG

Brownlow: WRONG

Coleman: WRONG

Rising Star: WRONG

Norm Smith: WRONG

AA Captain: WRONG

Well if there’s one thing a Lions supporter has learned from 2010 is that you can’t win them all.

I’ll admit I have an asschin the footyhigh experiment, while a bunch of fun has been a bit inconsistent. I’ll make a few posts in the off-season, just to keep my fitness up, but next year it’ll be back and I promise better than ever. More impassioned opinions, biased rants, putting shit on Beno and most of all, more footy!

One of those winnable games is Saturday night against North. The Roos have at times looked pretty good this year, but other times they’ve been dismal, particularly against the Saints and last week at Freo. A huge factor in this game is the Roos coming off a six day break flying back from Perth – if Brisbane are around the mark at three quarter time, expect them to run away with it. Brownvola still looks a long way off fit, but 8 goals between them last week will boost their confidence, and I don’t think North have the defence to contain them. Look for them to dominate – I’m tipping 10 between them.

So with that in mind I’m placing the first of a few bets for the week on this game:

$10 on the Lions over North by 24+ @$2.65. Was tempted to go over 40, but that might be getting a bit carried away considering the month or so of footy we played preceeding the Collingwood game. If my team is to go anywhere this year then this is a must win game, and it should be a percentage booster.

$10 on Carlton over Dees by 1-39 @ $2.20. I like these odds. Carlton are looking good, and should get up over the Dees, but I don’t think they have the forward line to really kick away from Melbourne, whose defence has proven to be quality this season.

$5 on Collingwood over the Dogs by 1-24 @ $3.40. Collingwood tend to lift for big games, and I think they’ll be stung into action after a humiliating loss to the eventual premiers last week. Dogs were woeful last week, and seem to have some issues getting it together this season. The way they’re playing at the moment, I think they’ll struggle to crack top 4. Having said that, they are a decent side, and they shouldn’t let the Pies get away too much.

I also need to mention a bet made between me and Beno last week. These things need to be put in the public domain. On Saturday night, my dreamteam sat on about 1300 with 9 players left to play, Beno about 1100 with 11 to come. I made the call and the bet was on – the lower scoring coach would buy a couple of beers for the victor. I’m pleased to say it was not even close. My boys smacked Beno’s Gangstaz by 100+ points. I’m looking forward to a couple of domestic brews on Beno’s wallet this weekend.

The official match between Beno’s Gangstaz and Matty P’s Mashville Mashers takes place in round 12, and the smack talk has begun already. I’m quite confident the Gangstaz are going the way of the Swans and I will get over them easy.

Firstly the Lions got up over the Dogs. Our start to the season so far had been pretty good, 3 and zip before I left was impressive, and although we had not played anyone considered a real contender, we can only beat who we come up against. The Dogs game was our first real test, and getting up over them was surely going to shut the critics up. Surely we’re now considered top 4 chances. No! Because then we go and get pantsed by Melbourne! Bloody Melbourne! Another loss to the Swans last week and we’ve gone from being top 4 guns to middle of the road.

Sydney have apparently impressed – I do rate the Swans, although I do hate to admit it because it’s so much fun to rag on Beno and his team. After the expected loss to the Saints in the first week and a couple of ok wins, by round 3 I don’t think the majority of punters had changed their opinion that the Swans were probably not a top 8 side. Not so anymore. Although they’ll never be real contenders with the caveman Lewis Roberts-Thomson in their side.

When I left Hawthorn were looking good – 1-2 but with the narrow losses to the Cats and the Dogs I think everyone agreed they were back. Now I’m not fully caught up but I can only guess Buddy killed a hooker, injuries have forced Cyril to play in the ruck and Fat Hodge is back out to 150kg because it looks as though the wheels have completely fallen off.

I guess today’s lesson is don’t get complacent, and don’t go jumping off a bridge, because when it comes to footy, in three weeks it can all turn around.

The next order of business is to respond to Beno’s rubbish post he made while I was away.

I like this Beno – the only time you’re willing to lay down a challenge is when I’m on the other side of the world without a computer. Way to show your true colours.

For those unaware it’s true that Beno is on top of our dream team league, but it is only because of the grace of a good draw. He had the lowest against score of anyone in the league, and only sits atop me because in the first three weeks I have played 2 of the top 3 teams in our league (the third team is me).

So my ass-chinned friend, I will consider your bet, but only when it comes closer to the date. It would be ludicrous to commit so early. However, if you do have such faith in your team, why not agree to my ongoing offer to double our season long bet? The higher team end of season gets two cartons rather than one. Surely the top of the table Gangstarz are not threatened by the lowly Mashers?