One of those winnable games is Saturday night against North. The Roos have at times looked pretty good this year, but other times they’ve been dismal, particularly against the Saints and last week at Freo. A huge factor in this game is the Roos coming off a six day break flying back from Perth – if Brisbane are around the mark at three quarter time, expect them to run away with it. Brownvola still looks a long way off fit, but 8 goals between them last week will boost their confidence, and I don’t think North have the defence to contain them. Look for them to dominate – I’m tipping 10 between them.

So with that in mind I’m placing the first of a few bets for the week on this game:

$10 on the Lions over North by 24+ @$2.65. Was tempted to go over 40, but that might be getting a bit carried away considering the month or so of footy we played preceeding the Collingwood game. If my team is to go anywhere this year then this is a must win game, and it should be a percentage booster.

$10 on Carlton over Dees by 1-39 @ $2.20. I like these odds. Carlton are looking good, and should get up over the Dees, but I don’t think they have the forward line to really kick away from Melbourne, whose defence has proven to be quality this season.

$5 on Collingwood over the Dogs by 1-24 @ $3.40. Collingwood tend to lift for big games, and I think they’ll be stung into action after a humiliating loss to the eventual premiers last week. Dogs were woeful last week, and seem to have some issues getting it together this season. The way they’re playing at the moment, I think they’ll struggle to crack top 4. Having said that, they are a decent side, and they shouldn’t let the Pies get away too much.

I also need to mention a bet made between me and Beno last week. These things need to be put in the public domain. On Saturday night, my dreamteam sat on about 1300 with 9 players left to play, Beno about 1100 with 11 to come. I made the call and the bet was on – the lower scoring coach would buy a couple of beers for the victor. I’m pleased to say it was not even close. My boys smacked Beno’s Gangstaz by 100+ points. I’m looking forward to a couple of domestic brews on Beno’s wallet this weekend.

The official match between Beno’s Gangstaz and Matty P’s Mashville Mashers takes place in round 12, and the smack talk has begun already. I’m quite confident the Gangstaz are going the way of the Swans and I will get over them easy.

The first bet is a simple two leg multi:

$5 on Swans to beat Freo and Crows to beat Brisbane @ $3.74 - I’m doing Sarge’s trick here. I’m a bit pessimistic about my team at the moment, so I figure I’ll make some money off our poor form, or at least be pleasantly surprised with a win. We’ve got Clark back which is nice, but with Merrett and Drummond both out, our defence is very shaky. Saucehead is a real general down there so heads are cooler with him around and without Drummond, the rebound from the back our team relies on is left to the less silky skills of Raines and McGrath. I would love to see Freo win today as well, but I think they’ll be a little shaky after a loss last weekend and the goings on with Johnson during the week won’t help. Swans at home are always a tough ask.

The second bet is simple:

$20 on the Saints to beat West Coast with a 7.5 point headstart @ $2 – Couldn’t believe these odds when I saw them. Sure the Saints have not been great, but the Weagles are in the doldrums (wins over Melbourne and Hawthorn are nothing to brag about). St Kilda are a great side, and they will blow away cellar dwellers like West Coast any day of the week .

Footy starts in ten minutes – time to put a pie in the oven!

I’ve placed $12 on the Cats to beat the Dockers at $1.72.

I reckon those are great odds for the Cats. They’ve been less than convincing so far this year, probably only having played 3 quarters of good footy out of 8. The important thing though is that they have done what they need to do to win games. What makes good teams great is their ability to win while always keeping something in the tank for the big challenges. Lethal’s Lions had it down to a T.

Freo have looked good so far, but at this stage it’s hard to gauge where they’re at. They’ve played two fairly lightweight opponents – The Cats are their first real test. I think the Dockers are on the improve, but to be honest, they are nowhere near the class of the Cats. If this game was late in the season, I’d have no doubt the Cats would blow them away, but this early they might spend the majority of the match in second gear. Make no mistake though – Geelong will win.

Round 1 is done and dusted and footy proved to be well worth the wait, with the exception of Blues vs. Tiges (Seriously AFL, no one wants to see this shit, hide it away on Sunday afternoon sometime in the middle of the season, and kick things off with a grand final rematch!).

Other than that piece of poo, it was great to have footy back, particularly watching my boys roll the Weagles in the last quarter on Saturday. If there was any doubt Brownvola couldn’t work together pre-season, that surely that was extinguished. Not only did Browny kick 5, but Fev got 3.7… ten shots at goal is a super effort, and once he figures out where the Gabba sticks are, he will dominate.  Another highlight for the Lions was Brennan’s game. Two years ago this guy made the leap from inconsistent, flashy freak to class midfielder. He still does the crazy one handed pick ups, early leaps and occasional miracle goal, but now he does the meat and potatoes stuff too – tackles like a machine and extracts the ball from the middle as good as anyone. This year people are going to wake up and realise how good he is. More on this later.

The Dogs Pies game on Sunday was an absolute epic. Pies  have thrown down the gauntlet to the big three this year, convincingly beating a Dogs side that most footy fanatics reckon will go close to the flag this year. And the fact that the Saints and Cats were not so convincing against less than elite sides suggests that the top four will be hotly contested this year. Throw an improving Hawks and Lions into to race and you know it’s gonna be intense.

Living the Dream

Forget about this petty real football business, Dream Team also kicked off this week, and while there are no head to head match ups, it’s good to get a look at where all our starting squads are at. Surprisingly,  Sarge and his heroes lead the league, ahead of me by just 40 points. Obviously been taking my team selection advice. Beno’s dwindling a little. Not looking so hot for him, hanging back in 8th spot in our league of mates, parents and various AFL legends like Browny and Harley (Barry Hall is also in the league). While I did convince him to get Riewoldt into his team, despite his objections, he obviously hasn’t listened hard enough to the rest of my tips and his starting squad is not so hot. You’ll have to trade hard before round 4 to get the Gangstaz up to scratch, Beno.

$100 Betting Challenge

After what I’ve seen in round 1 I’ve decided to make two bets for the challenge. The first is a simple two game multi.

$6 on the Swans to beat the Crows/The Cats to beat the Hawks @ 3.65.

Sydney are underdogs against the Crows which suprises me. I didn’t see their game on Saturday night, but they ran the Saints right to the wire, which is no mean feat. As much as it pains me to say it Sydney aren’t too bad, and while I don’t think they will challenge for the eight, they will surprise teams throughout the year. I do think Adelaide are a better side, but they have been murdered by injuries at this early stage of the year, and they may have a few ins this week, it’s not enough to convince me they’ll turn around from a 9 goal loss to the Dockers.

The Cats started things a bit shaky, but in the last quarter on Friday, looked back at their dominant best. The Hawks are impossible to gauge at this point, because they just had a practice match on Saturday. I think they will improve on last year, but they aren’t as good as the cats.

The other bet’s a little more out of leftfield, and something of a slow burner:

$2 each way on Jared Brennan for the Brownlow @ $51.

I know this is a longshot, but as you can guess from my earlier ramblings, I rate the dude. I used to be a huge critic, but since 08, Brennan has been huge for us. He has the fitness to run all day in the middle, and because we’ve been bummed by injuries, he’s had to play in the ruck and he’s done a decent job for a guy who looks about as suited to rucking as Beno is suited to modelling. This year he’s freed up to play on the floor, and he’ll dominate the clearances. Come round 8 all the media folk will be talking about what a hell of a season he’s having. But you’ll all say you heard it hear first from Matty P.

High five for footy, babies!

So to kick it off, I’m placing a fiver on Collingwood to knock off the Saints by 25+ @3.20.

The reasoning behind it is pretty straight forward – the Pies are just about at full-strength, while the Saints are missing a few top flight midfielders, and with Collingwood having an apparently ripping pre-season, I expect them to run over the underdone Saints in the second half. Expect to see Jolly run amok against old man King and Ball to have a real dip against his old club.

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