The pre-season is finally coming to an end, so we can stop talking about schoolgirls, player managers and Fev’s darkest days and we can turn our attention to the real important stuff. The usual banter has been flying around amongst the boys and of course we’re all talking up our sides and predicting big things (this is particularly difficult this year as a Lions supporter), so like last year we’re making a point of documenting just how we think things will pan out for the 2011 season. Come season’s end we can look back and see how right or (much more likely) how wrong we were.

The 2010 crystal ball was a bit hazy for me, and thinks didn’t go precisely as  I thought, so this year I’ve given it a good polish. I can confidently say that everything I predict here comes with the Matty P guarantee – you can put the farm on these calls.

The Final Ladder (including finals)

1. Pies

2. Cats

3. Dogs

4. Hawks

5. Saints

6. Freo

7. North

8. Carlton

9. Swans

10. Lions

11. Port

12. Bombers

13. Crows

14. Eagles

15. Dees

16. Tiges

17. Suns

Brownlow: Luke Hodge

Coleman: Barry Hall

Rising Star: Jared Polec

AA Captain: Luke Hodge

Norm Smith: Dale Thomas

Bradshaw Games/Goals: 6/14

Dale Thomas Top 10 for Brownlow: No (Sarge and I have a wager, just making it official)

It may be a bit of a cop out just picking the reigning premiers to take it out again this year, but I really can’t see who is going to get over the top of the Pies in 2011. Late last year Collingwood looked just about unbeatable – the performance in the prelim against the Cats was just awesome, and to come back in the GF replay and blow the Saints away like they did shows they’re made of the right stuff. With the exception of Presti they really haven’t lost much in the off-season and they’ve got a bunch of younger guys who are only going to go forward in their development.

The cats at 2 might surprise a lot of people, but I’m expecting good things from them. If Bomber was as jaded as he says he was at the end of 2010, it can’t have been good for the club – I think a new coach and a fresh outlook will revitalise Geelong and they’ll still be thereabouts this year.

I’m tipping the Saints to slide a bit this year. They’ve proven to be just short of the mark for the last couple of years now with a team built around the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard and Dal Santo. These guys are still great footballers, but they’re past the age where we can expect to see any improvement from them – I think 2011 is the year where we’ll start to see some of the younger sides catching up to the ageing Saints.

They’re probably no surprises at the other end of the ladder. The Suns inexperienced list will struggle at AFL level, and it’ll take them a while to find cohesion amongst the group. I think they’ll be waiting a while for their first win.

I think Captain Hodge is going to kick things up a notch this year. Obviously he’s already rated as one of the best in the business, but I think 2011 will be the year he stamps himself as one of the greats. Polec is a bit of a roughie for the Rising Star, but he’s a classy kid who’ll get games in the Lions struggling midfield. Besides, Brisbane has got to win something.

Once again, Sarge and Beno the challenge is issued to make your own predictions. If anyone disagrees with me feel free to comment and let me know why and I will tell you why you are wrong.

For the other boys 2011 predictions check out the following:

• Sarge’s Ultimate Prediction Post for 2011
• Beno’s 2011 Predictions Post

Hawks VS Swans 1.10 MCG

For me the most anticipated match of the round and will have lots of questions answered such as – How much strife are the Swans really in? Was last weeks belting of the Blues a sign of things to come for the Hawks? Can the Hawks make the finals? Will those stupid Kokoda camouflage jerseys work in the Hawks favour? Can Henry Playfair actually string a few games together and make my Dream Team investment worthwhile? Are Sydney really shit?

I’m rooting hard for a Hawks win. Might seem strange from a Cats supporter but seeing the Hawks rise up and back playing their best footy is good for the competition. I’ll never forget 2008 for the rest of my life and there’s nothing I’d love more than to get some revenge and beat them in the finals.

It would also be excellent to see the Swans lose their 4th straight to keep the likes of Beno silent after putting up with his nonsense for at the start of the season. Do I have to remind you about my amazing prediction, Beno?

My honest thoughts about this game? I think we’ll get a definite answer after the first quarter. The Swans are desperate for a win and like the lions last night I believe they are capable of turning the tables around and getting back on track. What they have going against them are some key injuries to Kennelly, Bradshaw and Seaby and the fact that it’s the Kokoda game (for both sides I believe) but the whole event seems heavily in the Hawks favour wearing those camouflage jerseys, which I actually like the look of, it’s much better than the poo and wee stripes.

On a side note, it’s annoyed me for the last couple of years how the Hawks injury list has seemed to be accepted as an excuse for them not winning. Well I’m pretty sure they have the smallest injury list in the league now. So if they don’t win, they are indeed shit.

My Tip – Hawks by 22+. Unfortunately the odds just aren’t juicy enough for me to have a punt @ 2.20 under 39 points.

Dreamteam – you’re a smart man if you have Hodge as your captain this week. An easy 100+ game coming up for him. O’Keefe – LIFT! I expect Mitchell to have a cracking game too after all the talks this week questioning if he is the true captain of the team. Goodes is due for a cracking game too.

It’s a shame Barry Hall isn’t playing after last years game where he gave away a 150m penalty. Going to be a cracker of a game. I can’t wait!

The first bet is a simple two leg multi:

$5 on Swans to beat Freo and Crows to beat Brisbane @ $3.74 - I’m doing Sarge’s trick here. I’m a bit pessimistic about my team at the moment, so I figure I’ll make some money off our poor form, or at least be pleasantly surprised with a win. We’ve got Clark back which is nice, but with Merrett and Drummond both out, our defence is very shaky. Saucehead is a real general down there so heads are cooler with him around and without Drummond, the rebound from the back our team relies on is left to the less silky skills of Raines and McGrath. I would love to see Freo win today as well, but I think they’ll be a little shaky after a loss last weekend and the goings on with Johnson during the week won’t help. Swans at home are always a tough ask.

The second bet is simple:

$20 on the Saints to beat West Coast with a 7.5 point headstart @ $2 – Couldn’t believe these odds when I saw them. Sure the Saints have not been great, but the Weagles are in the doldrums (wins over Melbourne and Hawthorn are nothing to brag about). St Kilda are a great side, and they will blow away cellar dwellers like West Coast any day of the week .

Footy starts in ten minutes – time to put a pie in the oven!

Port to beat the Bombers by under 39 points @ $2.60 – Yes it’s in Melbourne, the only reason I can see why the bombers would be favourites. They beat a pathetic hawthorn the week before and the dees still have a lot of trouble with their defense. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if the Power got up by over 39 but because the bombers are favs I’m tipping Port by under 39. P.S. I need new recruit C.Cornes to really kick ass this week in my Dream Team.

Hawks to beat the Eagles @ $2.35 – Yes, it’s at subie but the eagles have been pretty bad and there doesn’t seem to be any sign on or off field that they’re going to turn it around. Meanwhile this week all the heat has been on the hawks who I honestly believe will come out firing. Franklin playing fully fit is the worry and they’re still without their captain. Also the ruck is a worry too with big Nic Nat and Cox coming back to form (I sort of feel like I’m talking myself for a weagles win now but I’ll stick with it! ) However – they’re a proud club and can be nasty when they want to be. I predict a nasty hawks side to get one back and keep the media at bay. In all honesty though, if they lost again it wouldn’t bother me in the slightest

Freo to beat Lions by under 39 @ $3.25 – I can’t believe Lions are huge favourites here. Still without Merrett and now Maguire suspended their backline will struggle a bit. They’ll need a fully firing Browny and Fev to win this one but I just think the run of Freo will get them over the line. I hope Lions win but the dockers are just looking too good at the moment and at those odds they’re too good to refuse. Would be a great game to go to!

Swans to beat Cats by under 39 @ $4.25 – Delicious odds and again I’m doing my usual routine of betting against my beloved cats. I can’t see either team winning by over 40 and I give the Swans a chance on current form. I still go by my tip last week that from the head I think the cats at home will be too strong for the swans and the cats should take it out in a close one. Having said that, they are juicy odds and it will be devestating if we lost, especially against Sydney for certain reasons (ie putting up with Beno for the rest of the year over a H&A win against the cats) so a few dollars in my pocket will make up for it only very very very very slightly.

If I were going to put a multi on I’d slap it on port and freo double. Sorry Matty P. Lions need to do something to gain my respect back. Your return from the states may just help them!

You see – both his beloved swans and his DT Gangstarz are yet to beat any sizeable opponents. The Swans have only beaten teams in the bottom 8 of the ladder, the same goes for his DT. He and his swans have yet to come across any sizeable opponents – for instance Matty P or my good self in DT and the lions or the mighty cats.

In the AFL – this all changes starting tonight. Swans come up against the lions. Two weeks ago the lions were all the talk, after a loss to the lions and a few injury concerns (Browny and Merret for example) and a home ground advantage the Swans go in as favourites. I think their odds are a little too generous and people are forgetting the teams they’ve come up against. That’s not to say I don’t think Sydney are a terrible side, they just haven’t beaten anyone of significance yet.

If Beno can beat me and matty P in DT and the swans can beat the lions and cats then Beno can run his mouth all he wants. But for now – I’d be keeping a lid on it

I predict the swans could beat lions tonight in a close one – I can’t see vossy accepting another effort like last week against the dees. It’ll be a close match. I am putting a $10er on the swannies though. Either team I think will win by no more than 30.

I don’t think tonights result will really alter my thoughts for the cats/swans game the week after. If ablett plays I’m pretty confident. It’s at the cattery and that further boosts my confidence. It’ll be a pretty tight contest with theh cats getting away by about 10-35 points.

As for DT Beno plays me in round 18 (the last round of the home and away before finals start) and Matty P in round 12. Beno will lose both these matches quite considerably. DT is a marathon, not a sprint.

I’ve placed $12 on the Cats to beat the Dockers at $1.72.

I reckon those are great odds for the Cats. They’ve been less than convincing so far this year, probably only having played 3 quarters of good footy out of 8. The important thing though is that they have done what they need to do to win games. What makes good teams great is their ability to win while always keeping something in the tank for the big challenges. Lethal’s Lions had it down to a T.

Freo have looked good so far, but at this stage it’s hard to gauge where they’re at. They’ve played two fairly lightweight opponents – The Cats are their first real test. I think the Dockers are on the improve, but to be honest, they are nowhere near the class of the Cats. If this game was late in the season, I’d have no doubt the Cats would blow them away, but this early they might spend the majority of the match in second gear. Make no mistake though – Geelong will win.

I believe Matty P and myself had our first wins in the $100 AFL Betting Challenge. Beno is still yet to participate but have been given a good word he will be up and raring to go within a week. He’s got money and internets coming through so I’m hoping we see the bad the sad and the ugly side of Beno on footyhigh real soon

Round 3 is just hours away from starting. I’m tipping it’ll be a tipsters nightmare this week, a lot of 50/50 games. Shall be very interesting. Bring it on!

So many questions but the biggest question of all lies on today’s blockbuster at the MCG – Geelong VS Hawthorn. I’m being my usual skeptical self and am putting on a 5er on the Hawks under 40 points currently paying $3. This bet means either Matty P or I will come out with a win (finally) in the $100 AFL Betting Challenge. Don’t worry though, I’m barracking hard for my mighty Catters and nothing would please me more than topping off the Hawks. Yes, 2008 still hurts and will probably hurt to some degree for the rest of my life. It’s a safety bet and you’ll see me placing a lot more of  these when the cats play games against the big guns.

The boys are coming over this afternoon to get our footy and drink on, should be a ripper of an afternoon. Sort of has a September feel to today so hoping for a special game and some footy banter.

I’m just running through what other bets you can place and thought I’d share some thoughts.

Most Disposals

Sam Mitchell looks like great value at $5.50 but not against all conquering mighty captain Ling. He’ll keep Mitchell to around 15-25 disposals today, would be very surprised if he cracked over 30. Depending on where Hodge is he may collect him it all depends on who Ling goes to. Ablett is probably going to get the most disposals and has reasonably good odds of $2.75. He has ripper games against the Hawks. I like these odds so much I’m going to put $3 on Ablett for most disposals at $2.75. Add to the fact that it’s the son of God’s special weekend and he IS the son of God so he’s bound to have a cracker!!

First Goal

There’s some fairly good odds around. It’s pretty much a lottery for first goal but I reckon Byrnes or Mooney are a good pick for first goal at $13 and $8.50.

Most Goals

Most goals not surprisingly Franklin is no1 at $4.75. I really like Byrnes but maybe he’s getting too much attention as of late and he’ll be respected a little better than previously. Byrnes is paying $13 for most goals. Personally I’d rather put a punt on him for first than most goals. Roughy is $7.50 for those playing at home.

So that’s it. Beno has just arrived. Let the afternoon commence!!

Round 1 is done and dusted and footy proved to be well worth the wait, with the exception of Blues vs. Tiges (Seriously AFL, no one wants to see this shit, hide it away on Sunday afternoon sometime in the middle of the season, and kick things off with a grand final rematch!).

Other than that piece of poo, it was great to have footy back, particularly watching my boys roll the Weagles in the last quarter on Saturday. If there was any doubt Brownvola couldn’t work together pre-season, that surely that was extinguished. Not only did Browny kick 5, but Fev got 3.7… ten shots at goal is a super effort, and once he figures out where the Gabba sticks are, he will dominate.  Another highlight for the Lions was Brennan’s game. Two years ago this guy made the leap from inconsistent, flashy freak to class midfielder. He still does the crazy one handed pick ups, early leaps and occasional miracle goal, but now he does the meat and potatoes stuff too – tackles like a machine and extracts the ball from the middle as good as anyone. This year people are going to wake up and realise how good he is. More on this later.

The Dogs Pies game on Sunday was an absolute epic. Pies  have thrown down the gauntlet to the big three this year, convincingly beating a Dogs side that most footy fanatics reckon will go close to the flag this year. And the fact that the Saints and Cats were not so convincing against less than elite sides suggests that the top four will be hotly contested this year. Throw an improving Hawks and Lions into to race and you know it’s gonna be intense.

Living the Dream

Forget about this petty real football business, Dream Team also kicked off this week, and while there are no head to head match ups, it’s good to get a look at where all our starting squads are at. Surprisingly,  Sarge and his heroes lead the league, ahead of me by just 40 points. Obviously been taking my team selection advice. Beno’s dwindling a little. Not looking so hot for him, hanging back in 8th spot in our league of mates, parents and various AFL legends like Browny and Harley (Barry Hall is also in the league). While I did convince him to get Riewoldt into his team, despite his objections, he obviously hasn’t listened hard enough to the rest of my tips and his starting squad is not so hot. You’ll have to trade hard before round 4 to get the Gangstaz up to scratch, Beno.

$100 Betting Challenge

After what I’ve seen in round 1 I’ve decided to make two bets for the challenge. The first is a simple two game multi.

$6 on the Swans to beat the Crows/The Cats to beat the Hawks @ 3.65.

Sydney are underdogs against the Crows which suprises me. I didn’t see their game on Saturday night, but they ran the Saints right to the wire, which is no mean feat. As much as it pains me to say it Sydney aren’t too bad, and while I don’t think they will challenge for the eight, they will surprise teams throughout the year. I do think Adelaide are a better side, but they have been murdered by injuries at this early stage of the year, and they may have a few ins this week, it’s not enough to convince me they’ll turn around from a 9 goal loss to the Dockers.

The Cats started things a bit shaky, but in the last quarter on Friday, looked back at their dominant best. The Hawks are impossible to gauge at this point, because they just had a practice match on Saturday. I think they will improve on last year, but they aren’t as good as the cats.

The other bet’s a little more out of leftfield, and something of a slow burner:

$2 each way on Jared Brennan for the Brownlow @ $51.

I know this is a longshot, but as you can guess from my earlier ramblings, I rate the dude. I used to be a huge critic, but since 08, Brennan has been huge for us. He has the fitness to run all day in the middle, and because we’ve been bummed by injuries, he’s had to play in the ruck and he’s done a decent job for a guy who looks about as suited to rucking as Beno is suited to modelling. This year he’s freed up to play on the floor, and he’ll dominate the clearances. Come round 8 all the media folk will be talking about what a hell of a season he’s having. But you’ll all say you heard it hear first from Matty P.

High five for footy, babies!

Sarge’s 2010 AFL Ladder (prediction)

1. Dogs (This is their year, do or die time. They have the ‘missing piece’)
   
2. Saints (Are pissed, determined for revenge, fit and ready to rock. They won’t let a NAB final loss upset them… or will they?)
   
3. Geelong (Will have a slow start but come back firing ready for the finals, injuries permitting)
   
4. Brisbane (Will take a while to gel, but once they do – oh boy, I’m scared)
   
5. Pies (I think they’re a tad overhyped, they’re well spread out but who’s the danger man up forward?)
   
6. Hawks (If they finish any lower than 6th they’re the laughing stock of the AFL)
   
7. Adelaide (Will start a bit slow with their injured list but old mate Craigy will get them into the finals once again)
   
8. Sydney (They have nothing to lose, Rooseys last year as head coach, injury free, kids coming through. I like what I see)
   
9. Port (Another inconsistent year, will hopefully use NAB form to get them as high as 9th)
10. Kangaroos (Kangaroos are quite inconsistent, they are capable of knocking off the big teams)
11. Freo (I like what I saw from them in the NAB, but it’s freo. I’ll wait till 2011 till I give them a finals chance)
12. West Coast (Big Cox is going to go down this year, leaving Nic Nat with more than he can handle)
13. Carlton (Who’s kicking goals? Judd gone for 3 weeks, discipline issues within the team and a coach with big ears)
14. Richmond (Sorry tiges – you’re ‘transitioning’ and that doesn’t mean into the finals)
15. Essendon (Who’s kicking goals? Gumby? Haha)
16. Melbourne (You guys have way too many injuries and just love being down there don’t you?)

Brownlow - Gary Ablett (28 Votes)
There will be so much attention on Gazza this year, add to that his bald nut and his amazing footballing ability you can lock in Gazza for the brownlow right now.

Coleman - Barry Hall (79 goals)
I’m buying the doggies hype. They’re a fast team and they’re gonna target this guy like mad. If he plays as well as he did in the NAB he’ll get his 79 goals and take down the coleman. He doesn’t have to compete with another tall timber. He’s the doggies no1 target up forward.

Rising Star - Dustin Martin
In all truth, I don’t know much about the rookies. Jetta, Shuey look good but I’m just buying into the hype and people are saying this guy is an amazing kick, going to play 22 games etc etc. Maybe the tiges can win something other than the spoon this year.

AA Captain – Nick Riewoldt
He’s a freak. I applaud him for his work rate. Just needs to kick straight and he’s unbeatable. And probably be able to beat defenders with less than 50 games experience in Grand Finals

Premiers – Brisbane
A bit of a wild pick for me. Trying to be a bit unbiased I guess but I’m scared shitless of an up and running, in-form Browny and Fev in the forward line. The lions have a pretty solid defense and a midfield with the likes of Blacky and Rich running around they will be hard to beat. As long as their less experienced players kick it up a notch this year, they make top 4 it’ll be hard to beat a rampaging Fev and Browny come finals time.

Runner Up – Bulldogs
Won’t this be a sad story. I’m buying the hype and from what I saw in the NAB they look good to go. This is the year they must at least make the Grand Final. Which they’ll do, but Barry Hall will have a shocker of a day. The pressure and the women will get to him. He won’t be able to cope. He might not even make it out on Grand Final day.

Norm Smith - Simon Black
This guy always seems to go under the radar. I’ll admit I have no idea how his preseason has gone (not that it matters for Norm Smith) but he’ll love to win another premiership near the end of his career and give his all on the big stage.