Perhaps I’m being a little melodramatic, but the events that took place the evening  of March 26 at the Gabba were truly a disaster for the Brisbane Lions. We had a rough off-season – we had to sack two players for disciplinary reasons, our best and fairest winner and two other senior players walked out on the club, and the whole time our coach, our players and our whole club were getting bashed by all the goobers in the football media and most opinionated punters agreed with them.

But for Lions supporters there was always hope – Losing Fev was a blessing and Proud, Brennan and Sherman were inconsistent hacks who would never reach the potential the footy public seemed to think they had. A 2011 season in which Adcock, Maguire, Merrett, Drummond and Patfull didn’t miss extended periods would see our defence back to our 2009 best and in the three Rs (Rich, Redden and Rockliff) we have three of the most talented and underrated young midfielders in the business, and we still have Black and Power to guide them.

There was plenty of positive talk whispered between Lions fans under all the trash-talk from elsewhere, but it all came with one proviso: we NEED Browny. He was the one to kick the goals, straighten us up and steer the ship. When his nose got inverted into his head and his face was buried in the Gabba turf, you could hear 20,000 Lions supporters collectively yell ‘aw f—!’

To make matters worse we lost Staker as well. The one guy we could point to and say ‘See! Vossy’s not a complete nutbag! He can make a good trade!’ Feels bad man. After the rubbish we’ve been through this off-season, we really needed a win. To lose it in those circumstances was devastating. I haven’t seen a crowd that disappointed since the 2004 Grand Final.

It wasn’t all bad though. It was a gutsy effort for an inexperienced team to fight as hard as they did despite the injuries and kids like Bewick and Beams showed some goods. I also heard that when Browny headbutted the Earth, the whole planet shifted a fraction further away from the Sun, effectively solving that whole global warming thing. So thanks for that, Browny, and up yours Carbon Tax!

The pre-season is finally coming to an end, so we can stop talking about schoolgirls, player managers and Fev’s darkest days and we can turn our attention to the real important stuff. The usual banter has been flying around amongst the boys and of course we’re all talking up our sides and predicting big things (this is particularly difficult this year as a Lions supporter), so like last year we’re making a point of documenting just how we think things will pan out for the 2011 season. Come season’s end we can look back and see how right or (much more likely) how wrong we were.

The 2010 crystal ball was a bit hazy for me, and thinks didn’t go precisely as  I thought, so this year I’ve given it a good polish. I can confidently say that everything I predict here comes with the Matty P guarantee – you can put the farm on these calls.

The Final Ladder (including finals)

1. Pies

2. Cats

3. Dogs

4. Hawks

5. Saints

6. Freo

7. North

8. Carlton

9. Swans

10. Lions

11. Port

12. Bombers

13. Crows

14. Eagles

15. Dees

16. Tiges

17. Suns

Brownlow: Luke Hodge

Coleman: Barry Hall

Rising Star: Jared Polec

AA Captain: Luke Hodge

Norm Smith: Dale Thomas

Bradshaw Games/Goals: 6/14

Dale Thomas Top 10 for Brownlow: No (Sarge and I have a wager, just making it official)

It may be a bit of a cop out just picking the reigning premiers to take it out again this year, but I really can’t see who is going to get over the top of the Pies in 2011. Late last year Collingwood looked just about unbeatable – the performance in the prelim against the Cats was just awesome, and to come back in the GF replay and blow the Saints away like they did shows they’re made of the right stuff. With the exception of Presti they really haven’t lost much in the off-season and they’ve got a bunch of younger guys who are only going to go forward in their development.

The cats at 2 might surprise a lot of people, but I’m expecting good things from them. If Bomber was as jaded as he says he was at the end of 2010, it can’t have been good for the club – I think a new coach and a fresh outlook will revitalise Geelong and they’ll still be thereabouts this year.

I’m tipping the Saints to slide a bit this year. They’ve proven to be just short of the mark for the last couple of years now with a team built around the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard and Dal Santo. These guys are still great footballers, but they’re past the age where we can expect to see any improvement from them – I think 2011 is the year where we’ll start to see some of the younger sides catching up to the ageing Saints.

They’re probably no surprises at the other end of the ladder. The Suns inexperienced list will struggle at AFL level, and it’ll take them a while to find cohesion amongst the group. I think they’ll be waiting a while for their first win.

I think Captain Hodge is going to kick things up a notch this year. Obviously he’s already rated as one of the best in the business, but I think 2011 will be the year he stamps himself as one of the greats. Polec is a bit of a roughie for the Rising Star, but he’s a classy kid who’ll get games in the Lions struggling midfield. Besides, Brisbane has got to win something.

Once again, Sarge and Beno the challenge is issued to make your own predictions. If anyone disagrees with me feel free to comment and let me know why and I will tell you why you are wrong.

For the other boys 2011 predictions check out the following:

• Sarge’s Ultimate Prediction Post for 2011
• Beno’s 2011 Predictions Post

Most of the pointers from my post last year still apply, but the game as a whole has changed quite a bit with the introduction of GC, byes, more trades and more bench players, so I’ll tell you how I think these modifications will change the way the game is played. Obviously I’ve never seen the new rules in action, so it’s a bit of speculation on my part, but I have a track record of success – you can count on me.

Like last year, I’m not going to give advice on specific players, do your own research!

Nick Riewoldt

"Why didn't Beno pick me in his Dream Team again?"

OK, I’ll give advice on one player. The Saints skipper is a must have. He’s proven over the long term to be one of only two forwards who can average over 100 and he’s one of the most durable guys in the comp. Last year was a freak injury and he proved he’s still up to it by getting some big scores when he came back. Also, this season we’ve all seen his junk. Not sure if that’s a pro or a con for his Dream Team scores, but it is something.

Trading wins the game

Last year I stressed the importance of  being conservative when you’re trading and things are no different this year. The number of trades has increased from 20 to 24, but you’ve got to remember the season is also two weeks longer now. It’s 1 trade per week this year versus 0.91 previously – not a big difference, so don’t go crazy like you’re Vossy at the end of 2009.

A good way to control your trading is to have a plan for the guys you pick in your starting lineup. So decide now if that player will score enough points to be in your team for 24 weeks (I would say you’d want them to average at least 80 per week), and if they’re not, are they going increase in value enough so that you will be able to trade them to a player worthy of keeping in your team for the finals? If you can pick 12 keepers in your team at the start of the season, that only leaves you with 10 guys in the starting lineup you need to upgrade. If that’s the case you should have change from your 24 trades come round 20.

Don’t Let The Byes Get To You

This rule probably won’t apply if you’re trying to get the highest possible overall score, but for someone who’s just trying to win their league I think the best thing to do about the byes is just not worry about them (at least when you’re picking your initial squad). The  byes were always going to be a tricky issue for dream team, but I think the few changes they’ve made will make it easy to manage, we’ve got extra trades, an extended interchange bench and more dual position players so there should be plenty of cover.

Something Stupid

The big issue is the multi-bye rounds. In rounds 4, 5, 6, 16 and 19, three teams have the week off, which could decimate Dream Teams. Thankfully the wise heads in charge of the comp have declared no league games are to take place. Now thinking about this a strategy people might consider is loading up on players who feature in these multi-bye rounds twice (ie Lions, Swans, Dees, Dockers), but I think this could be problematic. Your priority when picking players has got to be picking the highest scorers and the best value – worrying about who’s playing when could cloud your judgement and you’ll end up doing something stupid (pictured, left).

Just follow the golden rules from last year – don’t load up on players from one team, and make sure your bench rookies are going to get games. This should let you see off the byes with no issues.

Don’t sacrifice quality for dual position

Last year I didn’t really consider a player’s DP status when picking them – there wasn’t too many of them going around and I backed the guys I was picking to stay injury free. This year we know everyone is going to miss at least two games, and there’s a few more DP guys floating around, so I think it’s a viable option to look at getting some links between positions.

I do think it could be a bit of a trap though. It’d be easy to try and force DP players into your squad at the cost of better options. If you’ve got a rookie and you’re not sure if he’s going to get games, then don’t pick him because of the extra position. He’s not going to cover anything with a zero next to his name.

Ignore my advice

Well don’t completely ignore my advice. But I should point out that there are exceptions to every rule (except the ‘get Nick Riewoldt’ one). There will always be certain players every team has or a certain trade everyone will be looking to make at the same time. What wins this game is the points of difference between teams. To really get ahead of the pack you have to take risks and make a couple of picks that differ from popular opinion. This is generally where I fall down. I always try and grab a couple of players from leftfield and it generally works out being a spectacular mistake (pictured, below).

To the other guys in my league, I hope you read this.. soak it in. I hope you can challenge me this year, I really do. If anyone else takes my advice and wins the car, you owe me a share. If you take my advice and fail miserably, then you obviously misread it. Happy Dream Teaming.

Mistake

I know some people consider the footy to already have begun, but I can’t get behind these laughable pre-season exhibition games. It’s not so much the farcical, cringe-worthy ‘rules’ the AFL try out – it runs deeper than that. The NAB Cup is an embarrassment to this great game, but more than that it’s a giant middle finger raised to the very thing that makes us human. See when you strip away trivial things like field size, ball shape, rules, etc we all love the same thing about organised sport – it’s in our nature to be competitive. Throughout history we’ve donned tribal colours and yelled and screamed and done outlandish things to prove whose colours are best. The difference is now we pay athletes millions of dollars to represent us rather than club each other over the head. I know some clubs claim that they’re out to win the NAB cup, but the reality is no one gives a shit (this is painfully obvious after viewing the games on the weekend). That’s why I can’t stand the pre-season comp – I live out my competitive urges watching this game, seeing my team not try is like being tied down and made to watch my Dad get beat up.

Negativity aside, the good stuff is nearly here. We’re starting to see something other than Nick Riewoldt’s dick in the paper, so the footy must be close! To celebrate I’ll follow Sarge’s lead and review my goals of 2010 and set a new batch for the new season.

Matty P’s 2010 Goals

Footy Weekend in Melbourne

Mission accomplished, and while sitting through a Lions loss by ten goals at Skilled was one of the most painful experiences of my life, a good time was had by all, and at least we didn’t lose by as much as Sydney did.

Praise my club’s genius when Fev kicks his first bag

Check.

Deride my club’s stupidity when Fev makes the news for doing something stupid

Check. Check. Check. Check. Check.

Win dreamteam league again (stretching my streak to about 6 years) and finish top 1000 overall

Well I didn’t come close to top 1000, but I’ll put that down to being out of the country for nearly a month early in the season, a fact that makes my continued league dominance even more amazing. Both the boys sat above me on the ladder for most of the season, but like Lethal’s Lions the Mashers knew how to go up a gear when it mattered!

Beat Beno in the $100 challenge

Won the whole damn thing!

Matty P’s 2011 Goals

Get down to the Gold Coast a bunch of times

Man, it’s gonna be nice to be able to go to the footy every weekend. Will obviously get to the Sunshine Stoushes (or whatever it is they’re gonna call Brisbane vs GC games, I really hope it’s not sunshine stoush), and try and get to a few more. Geelong, Carlton, Saints games will all be a good.

Attend a first week final

If Brisbane are at the Gabba (it could happen!) I’ll be there, otherwise I’ll head down South with Sarge.

Defend my dreamteam title

Every year I go in as reigning premier it becomes more and more unlikely that I can defend. How can one team stay up after such a sustained period of success? Surely being the hunted every year takes its toll. The sharks are circling. I’m pretty sure Beno has quit his job to focus on dt fulltime, and Sarge is probably not going to pick Relton Roberts this year, so that’s a start. If one team can pull it off, it’s the mighty Mashers.

Win the betting challenge again

Phase 1:  Open sportingbet account with $100

Phase 2: ?????

Phase 3: Profit!

Stick fat

This is the most important one of all. I’m quietly confident that my Lions might surprise a few people this year, but most pundits are predicting we will fall in a heap this year and if I’m honest there’s a good chance they will be right. It’s not easy, but sticking by your team through rough patches is the true test of a footy fan, but it’s well worth it – the hard times make the victories that much more sweet.

That’s a start! Big year ahead of us – new teams, new rules, new.. stadium sponsors! Consequences will never be the same! Get pumped!

Outside of my team’s performance it was a cracker of a season. We saw the rise of Collingwood, the fall of Essendon, the continued middle-of-the-road blandness of the Kangaroos. Some young guns came through, and some old dogs went out. So many great moments, but I’ve boiled it down to a top five best moments, be warned there’s a bit a Brisbane slant:

5. Browny blowing Carlton away - To see the contrast between Carlton fans huffing and puffing about Fev before the game then crying about Browny tearing them a new one (again) in round 2 was beautiful. 21 touches, 12 marks and 7 goals. The man is a legend.

4. Melbourne Collingwood draw - I will always remember this game. One of the greats. Collingwood play an entertaining, free-running style of footy and they were so close to being beaten by a young Melbourne side at their own game. There’s no neutral supporter’s when Collingwood’s involved and this one was heart-breaking for 90%  of fans.

3. Goddard in the drawn grand final - Tough, gutsy and brutal, but also pure class in probably the most intense game I have ever seen. How he did not win Normie I have no idea. Not that I’m complaining – I made a pretty penny on Lenny.

2. Sydney getting their pants pulled down by Melbourne - I’m just happy I could be a part of this one. Could not have asked for a better game to sit by my good friend Beno. Watching Sydney suffer their biggest defeat under Paul Roos and Benson’s reaction was priceless.

1. Fev’s 4 second half goals to sink the Pies - Home and away games do not get better than this one. A packed house at the Gabba, our star recruit kicks a bunch of assy goals to steal victory from the bad guys, snapping a five game losing streak in the process. All I could think after this game was ‘this is why I love footy’.

The Dizzying Highs

On a personal level, 2010 has been a huge success for Matty P. Dream Team was a huge focus for us Footy High boys this year, although I’m not sure why. It was and always has been a foregone conclusion that I would be the premier. I paced myself in the lower half of the eight all season, just biding my time – building the ultimate team of Septemer (or August) specialists. The mighty Mashers pulled an Adelaide ’98 effort winning the flag from 5th, bundling Sarge’s zeros and Beno’s Wangstaz out of the finals in the process. How sweet it is.

But that’s not my only huge success. The final tally in the $100 betting challenge looks a little something like this:

Matty P – $195.41

Sarge – <$1

Beno – DNF

I am truly a legendary punter and I’m going to pull a Joe Namath and guarantee victory in this same contest next year.

The Crushing Lows

It wasn’t all roses though. If we look back in time my start of season predictions were not so super.

Premiers: WRONG

Brownlow: WRONG

Coleman: WRONG

Rising Star: WRONG

Norm Smith: WRONG

AA Captain: WRONG

Well if there’s one thing a Lions supporter has learned from 2010 is that you can’t win them all.

I’ll admit I have an asschin the footyhigh experiment, while a bunch of fun has been a bit inconsistent. I’ll make a few posts in the off-season, just to keep my fitness up, but next year it’ll be back and I promise better than ever. More impassioned opinions, biased rants, putting shit on Beno and most of all, more footy!

That's the margin between your team and my team, Beno.

One of those winnable games is Saturday night against North. The Roos have at times looked pretty good this year, but other times they’ve been dismal, particularly against the Saints and last week at Freo. A huge factor in this game is the Roos coming off a six day break flying back from Perth – if Brisbane are around the mark at three quarter time, expect them to run away with it. Brownvola still looks a long way off fit, but 8 goals between them last week will boost their confidence, and I don’t think North have the defence to contain them. Look for them to dominate – I’m tipping 10 between them.

So with that in mind I’m placing the first of a few bets for the week on this game:

$10 on the Lions over North by 24+ @$2.65. Was tempted to go over 40, but that might be getting a bit carried away considering the month or so of footy we played preceeding the Collingwood game. If my team is to go anywhere this year then this is a must win game, and it should be a percentage booster.

$10 on Carlton over Dees by 1-39 @ $2.20. I like these odds. Carlton are looking good, and should get up over the Dees, but I don’t think they have the forward line to really kick away from Melbourne, whose defence has proven to be quality this season.

$5 on Collingwood over the Dogs by 1-24 @ $3.40. Collingwood tend to lift for big games, and I think they’ll be stung into action after a humiliating loss to the eventual premiers last week. Dogs were woeful last week, and seem to have some issues getting it together this season. The way they’re playing at the moment, I think they’ll struggle to crack top 4. Having said that, they are a decent side, and they shouldn’t let the Pies get away too much.

I also need to mention a bet made between me and Beno last week. These things need to be put in the public domain. On Saturday night, my dreamteam sat on about 1300 with 9 players left to play, Beno about 1100 with 11 to come. I made the call and the bet was on – the lower scoring coach would buy a couple of beers for the victor. I’m pleased to say it was not even close. My boys smacked Beno’s Gangstaz by 100+ points. I’m looking forward to a couple of domestic brews on Beno’s wallet this weekend.

The official match between Beno’s Gangstaz and Matty P’s Mashville Mashers takes place in round 12, and the smack talk has begun already. I’m quite confident the Gangstaz are going the way of the Swans and I will get over them easy.

The first bet is a simple two leg multi:

$5 on Swans to beat Freo and Crows to beat Brisbane @ $3.74 - I’m doing Sarge’s trick here. I’m a bit pessimistic about my team at the moment, so I figure I’ll make some money off our poor form, or at least be pleasantly surprised with a win. We’ve got Clark back which is nice, but with Merrett and Drummond both out, our defence is very shaky. Saucehead is a real general down there so heads are cooler with him around and without Drummond, the rebound from the back our team relies on is left to the less silky skills of Raines and McGrath. I would love to see Freo win today as well, but I think they’ll be a little shaky after a loss last weekend and the goings on with Johnson during the week won’t help. Swans at home are always a tough ask.

The second bet is simple:

$20 on the Saints to beat West Coast with a 7.5 point headstart @ $2 – Couldn’t believe these odds when I saw them. Sure the Saints have not been great, but the Weagles are in the doldrums (wins over Melbourne and Hawthorn are nothing to brag about). St Kilda are a great side, and they will blow away cellar dwellers like West Coast any day of the week .

Footy starts in ten minutes – time to put a pie in the oven!

Firstly the Lions got up over the Dogs. Our start to the season so far had been pretty good, 3 and zip before I left was impressive, and although we had not played anyone considered a real contender, we can only beat who we come up against. The Dogs game was our first real test, and getting up over them was surely going to shut the critics up. Surely we’re now considered top 4 chances. No! Because then we go and get pantsed by Melbourne! Bloody Melbourne! Another loss to the Swans last week and we’ve gone from being top 4 guns to middle of the road.

Sydney have apparently impressed – I do rate the Swans, although I do hate to admit it because it’s so much fun to rag on Beno and his team. After the expected loss to the Saints in the first week and a couple of ok wins, by round 3 I don’t think the majority of punters had changed their opinion that the Swans were probably not a top 8 side. Not so anymore. Although they’ll never be real contenders with the caveman Lewis Roberts-Thomson in their side.

When I left Hawthorn were looking good – 1-2 but with the narrow losses to the Cats and the Dogs I think everyone agreed they were back. Now I’m not fully caught up but I can only guess Buddy killed a hooker, injuries have forced Cyril to play in the ruck and Fat Hodge is back out to 150kg because it looks as though the wheels have completely fallen off.

I guess today’s lesson is don’t get complacent, and don’t go jumping off a bridge, because when it comes to footy, in three weeks it can all turn around.

The next order of business is to respond to Beno’s rubbish post he made while I was away.

I like this Beno – the only time you’re willing to lay down a challenge is when I’m on the other side of the world without a computer. Way to show your true colours.

For those unaware it’s true that Beno is on top of our dream team league, but it is only because of the grace of a good draw. He had the lowest against score of anyone in the league, and only sits atop me because in the first three weeks I have played 2 of the top 3 teams in our league (the third team is me).

So my ass-chinned friend, I will consider your bet, but only when it comes closer to the date. It would be ludicrous to commit so early. However, if you do have such faith in your team, why not agree to my ongoing offer to double our season long bet? The higher team end of season gets two cartons rather than one. Surely the top of the table Gangstarz are not threatened by the lowly Mashers?

I’ve placed $12 on the Cats to beat the Dockers at $1.72.

I reckon those are great odds for the Cats. They’ve been less than convincing so far this year, probably only having played 3 quarters of good footy out of 8. The important thing though is that they have done what they need to do to win games. What makes good teams great is their ability to win while always keeping something in the tank for the big challenges. Lethal’s Lions had it down to a T.

Freo have looked good so far, but at this stage it’s hard to gauge where they’re at. They’ve played two fairly lightweight opponents – The Cats are their first real test. I think the Dockers are on the improve, but to be honest, they are nowhere near the class of the Cats. If this game was late in the season, I’d have no doubt the Cats would blow them away, but this early they might spend the majority of the match in second gear. Make no mistake though – Geelong will win.